Interpret published models of connected Earth systems

How do emissions connect the atmosphere, ocean, ice and coastal land?

Submit: An evidence record, explanation and revision.

Related lesson: Climate and Earth Systems

This is a teacher-led extension beyond the short lesson. The task supplies a performance opportunity; completion alone does not certify mastery, full NGSS coverage or state alignment.

Build the idea

Published climate-model results help explain linked Earth systems. Human greenhouse-gas emissions alter the atmosphere’s energy balance; ocean warming expands seawater and land-ice loss adds water to the ocean. Relative sea level at a coast also depends on land motion and regional effects. Model scenarios and uncertainty ranges must remain attached to reported values.

Evidence and model inputs

IPCC AR6 published projections: likely global mean sea-level rise by 2100 relative to 1995–2014 is 0.28–0.55 m under SSP1-1.9 and 0.63–1.01 m under SSP5-8.5. Use the IPCC summary and ocean chapter to interpret these assessed scientific model results. This activity uses published outputs only; it does not run a classroom climate simulation.

Keep actual observations, published findings and invented model cases labeled separately. If a source or required equipment is unavailable, pause that part with a teacher; do not invent results.

Materials and preparation

Paper, graph paper or spreadsheet, and the linked readings.

Grade-level scope

Assessment uses published scientific model results; running an original computational climate model is outside this expectation’s boundary.

Do the work

1. Record the two scenarios, reference period, horizon, units and meaning of the reported likely ranges.
2. Draw a causal model connecting human emissions, atmosphere, ocean temperature, land ice and coastal systems.
3. Use the published scenario difference to explain how changing human activity can affect multiple spheres.
4. Identify why global mean projections cannot be used as exact flood depth at a particular school.
5. Write a source-based systems explanation with regional land motion, uncertainty and omitted processes clearly labeled.

Learner worksheet

Write on paper or type here and print. Entries stay in this page’s memory and are lost when you leave or reload; they are not saved or submitted.

Check your reasoning

1. Does 0.63–1.01 m mean a certain local flood depth?
2. How does a warmer ocean raise sea level without adding water?
3. How does melting land ice differ?
4. Should this task replace published results with a homemade forecast?

Teacher review guide

Review the actual deliverable and discuss the reasoning. For each criterion, use 0 when evidence is absent or fundamentally incorrect, 1 when partly supported with a material error or omission, and 2 when accurate, supported and complete for the stated task. Maximum 8 points is a task score, not a proficiency certification. Give feedback and allow revision.

1. Accurately uses published results with all context labels.
2. Explains interactions among multiple Earth systems.
3. Connects human activity with modeled changes.
4. Distinguishes global results from local impacts and uncertainty.

Sources and standard reference

• Official NGSS HS-ESS3-6 performance expectation — inspect the practice, core idea, crosscutting concept and assessment boundary.
• IPCC AR6 physical-science summary
• IPCC AR6 ocean chapter

Instructional text and hypothetical cases are original. Linked source readings supply published evidence where specified. Teachers should judge fit with their course and state requirements.