Compare observed warming with published projections

What can global temperature evidence tell us about future heat-related impacts?

Submit: An evidence record, explanation and revision.

Related lesson: Climate and Earth Systems

This is a teacher-led extension beyond the short lesson. The task supplies a performance opportunity; completion alone does not certify mastery, full NGSS coverage or state alignment.

Build the idea

Observations describe measured past conditions; scenario projections describe conditional futures. Compare temperatures only after checking baseline periods and averaging intervals. A single warm year is not the same quantity as a 20-year average, and a global average is not a local daily maximum.

Evidence and model inputs

Published data cards: NOAA reports 2024 global surface temperature about 1.46 °C above its 1850–1900 baseline. IPCC AR6 gives best-estimate 2081–2100 warming relative to 1850–1900 of 1.4 °C under SSP1-1.9, 2.7 °C under SSP2-4.5 and 4.4 °C under SSP5-8.5. These are conditional multi-year projections, not three forecasts with equal assigned probabilities. Read the original sources for uncertainty and methods.

Keep actual observations, published findings and invented model cases labeled separately. If a source or required equipment is unavailable, pause that part with a teacher; do not invent results.

Materials and preparation

Paper, graph paper or spreadsheet, and the linked readings.

Grade-level scope

One climate change—global warming—and its heat-related implications. Do not compare incompatible baselines as if identical.

Do the work

1. Make a table labeling observation versus projection, baseline, averaging interval and scenario.
2. Graph the three projected best estimates separately from the single-year observation.
3. Calculate the difference between the low and high scenario estimates and explain why it is not a precise local temperature prediction.
4. Use the IPCC discussion of warming and hot extremes to explain one associated impact: greater heat exposure risk, with local vulnerability and adaptation affecting consequences.
5. Identify uncertainty, scenario dependence and additional local evidence needed for a school heat-response plan.

Learner worksheet

Write on paper or type here and print. Entries stay in this page’s memory and are lost when you leave or reload; they are not saved or submitted.

Check your reasoning

1. What is the low-to-high projected difference?
2. Does one year above 1.4 °C invalidate a 1.4 °C long-term projection?
3. Are these local afternoon temperatures?
4. Do scenarios predict one inevitable outcome?

Teacher review guide

Review the actual deliverable and discuss the reasoning. For each criterion, use 0 when evidence is absent or fundamentally incorrect, 1 when partly supported with a material error or omission, and 2 when accurate, supported and complete for the stated task. Maximum 8 points is a task score, not a proficiency certification. Give feedback and allow revision.

1. Analyzes real observations and published model results.
2. Keeps baselines, periods and scenarios explicit.
3. Explains one climate change and a related impact.
4. Qualifies forecasts with uncertainty and local evidence needs.

Sources and standard reference

• Official NGSS HS-ESS3-5 performance expectation — inspect the practice, core idea, crosscutting concept and assessment boundary.
• NOAA global temperature record
• IPCC AR6 synthesis summary

Instructional text and hypothetical cases are original. Linked source readings supply published evidence where specified. Teachers should judge fit with their course and state requirements.